{ "season": 2026, "week": 1, "date": "2026-09-13", "locked_at": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lock_time_approximate": true, "book_of_record": "FanDuel market line at lock time", "picks": [ { "id": "2026-w1-side-1", "type": "side", "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "venue": "home", "result": "win", "game": { "away": "Cleveland Browns", "home": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "kickoff": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z", "stadium": "EverBank Stadium", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 10, "home_score": 34 }, "recap": "This one was about as comfortable as a -8.5 favorite can get. Trevor Lawrence went 18-for-23 for 245 yards and four touchdowns, Jacksonville led 24-0 at halftime, and it eventually got to 31-0 before Cleveland finally found the end zone. The Jaguars also forced two turnovers, including an early Deshaun Watson interception that helped set the tone. Final: Jacksonville 34, Cleveland 10. We needed a nine-point win and got 24, so the pick cleared the number by 15.5 points.", "pick": "Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 vs Cleveland Browns", "lockedLine": "-8.5", "confidence": 5, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "pickNotes": "This was my best bet on the Week 1 board. Cleveland was asking Deshaun Watson and an offense with a lot of question marks to keep pace with Jacksonville, and the market had already pushed the Jaguars up from roughly a touchdown favorite to -8.5. That's a big number, but I thought Jacksonville had enough of an advantage on both sides of the ball to create separation rather than just survive the game.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "Cleveland Browns", "homeTeam": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "marketType": "spread", "selection": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "line": -8.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": 0.9090909090909091, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-side-2", "type": "side", "team": "Miami Dolphins", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "venue": "away", "result": "loss", "game": { "away": "Miami Dolphins", "home": "Las Vegas Raiders", "kickoff": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z", "stadium": "Allegiant Stadium", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 13, "home_score": 27 }, "recap": "Miami never really gave the +3 a chance. Las Vegas was already up 17-6 at halftime and stretched it to 27-13 by the end of the third quarter. The Dolphins never mounted the fourth-quarter push we needed and the game finished 27-13. Taking points only helps when the underdog can stay attached to the game; Miami simply got outplayed for too long. A 14-point loss turns +3 into a straightforward loser.", "pick": "Miami Dolphins +3 at Las Vegas Raiders", "lockedLine": "+3", "confidence": 3, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "pickNotes": "This pick was more about taking the points against Las Vegas than having a ton of faith in Miami. The Dolphins were rebuilding around Malik Willis and a very young roster, but I wasn't convinced the Raiders deserved to be laying a full field goal either. I expected an ugly, fairly close game where the +3 could matter. This was one of the lower-confidence plays on the card.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "Miami Dolphins", "homeTeam": "Las Vegas Raiders", "marketType": "spread", "selection": "Miami Dolphins", "line": 3.0, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": -1, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-side-3", "type": "side", "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "venue": "home", "result": "loss", "game": { "away": "Arizona Cardinals", "home": "Los Angeles Chargers", "kickoff": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z", "stadium": "SoFi Stadium", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 26, "home_score": 14 }, "recap": "This wasn't a bad beat. Arizona was just the better team. The Cardinals led 13-7 at halftime, kept piling up points through Chad Ryland's field goals, and the Chargers were shut out completely in both the second and fourth quarters. Los Angeles needed to win by ten; instead it lost outright 26-14. That's a 12-point loss as a 9.5-point favorite, meaning we missed the spread by a massive 21.5 points. Easily the ugliest side on the Week 1 card.", "pick": "Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs Arizona Cardinals", "lockedLine": "-9.5", "confidence": 3, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "pickNotes": "I expected the Chargers' overall talent and trench advantage at home to eventually overwhelm Arizona. What kept this from being a high-confidence pick was the market movement. The number had been much larger earlier and money was coming toward Arizona before kickoff. We still laid -9.5, but this was definitely one of the sides I was less comfortable with.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "Arizona Cardinals", "homeTeam": "Los Angeles Chargers", "marketType": "spread", "selection": "Los Angeles Chargers", "line": -9.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": -1, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-side-4", "type": "side", "team": "Denver Broncos", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "venue": "away", "game": { "away": "Denver Broncos", "home": "Kansas City Chiefs", "kickoff": "2026-09-15T00:15:00Z", "stadium": "Arrowhead Stadium", "status": "SCHEDULED", "away_score": null, "home_score": null }, "pick": "Denver Broncos +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs", "lockedLine": "+2.5", "confidence": 4, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T19:30:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "result": "pending", "pickNotes": "This is my favorite of the two picks added when we expanded the card. Patrick Mahomes is returning only about nine months after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee, and Kansas City also has questions protecting his blind side. That's not the matchup I want against Denver's pass rush. The Chiefs also replaced a huge portion of their secondary, while Denver has added Jaylen Waddle to Bo Nix's receiving options. I see this game as much closer to a coin flip than the home-field line suggests, so getting +2.5 with Denver is enough for a strong play.", "recap": "", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-14", "awayTeam": "Denver Broncos", "homeTeam": "Kansas City Chiefs", "marketType": "spread", "selection": "Denver Broncos", "line": 2.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": null, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-total-1", "type": "total", "teams": [ "Baltimore Ravens", "Indianapolis Colts" ], "direction": "Under", "result": "loss", "game": { "away": "Baltimore Ravens", "home": "Indianapolis Colts", "kickoff": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z", "stadium": "Lucas Oil Stadium", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 41, "home_score": 23 }, "recap": "This Under was basically dead before we had time to get comfortable. Baltimore scored touchdowns on its first two possessions and there were already 20 points on the board in the first quarter. The Ravens went into halftime up 31-13 and finished with 506 yards of offense. Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards, Derrick Henry ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns, and Zay Flowers had 150 receiving yards. Final: Baltimore 41, Indianapolis 23. That's 64 total points, blowing past our Under by 16.5. Just a completely wrong read on the pace of the game.", "pick": "Baltimore Ravens / Indianapolis Colts Under 47.5", "lockedLine": "47.5", "confidence": 4, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "pickNotes": "The market had already pushed this total down from around 49.5 and I agreed with the move. I expected Baltimore to lean heavily on Derrick Henry, control possession and put Daniel Jones under pressure rather than turn the game into a track meet. Even at the reduced 47.5, I thought the Under still had value.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "Baltimore Ravens", "homeTeam": "Indianapolis Colts", "marketType": "total", "selection": "Under", "line": 47.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": -1, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-total-2", "type": "total", "teams": [ "New Orleans Saints", "Detroit Lions" ], "direction": "Over", "result": "win", "game": { "away": "New Orleans Saints", "home": "Detroit Lions", "kickoff": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z", "stadium": "Ford Field", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 30, "home_score": 31 }, "recap": "This might end up being the craziest win of the entire season. The score was 7-0 at halftime and the Over 49.5 looked absolutely buried. Then the game completely exploded. Detroit went ahead 21-0, Tyler Shough brought New Orleans all the way back, and the Saints forced overtime at 24-24. Shough finished with 410 passing yards and three touchdowns, Chris Olave had 182 receiving yards, and Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 156 yards and two scores. Detroit scored first in overtime, New Orleans answered with a touchdown, then failed on the two-point try. Final: Lions 31, Saints 30. After only seven first-half points, the teams somehow produced 54 points after halftime and in overtime. The Over finished 11.5 points clear of the number.", "pick": "New Orleans Saints / Detroit Lions Over 49.5", "lockedLine": "49.5", "confidence": 4, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "pickNotes": "I liked Detroit to do most of the heavy lifting here. The Lions are dangerous indoors and I thought they had a real path into the high 20s or 30s. The question was whether New Orleans could contribute enough points of its own. I thought they could, which made this one of the stronger totals on the card.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "New Orleans Saints", "homeTeam": "Detroit Lions", "marketType": "total", "selection": "Over", "line": 49.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": 0.9090909090909091, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-total-3", "type": "total", "teams": [ "Atlanta Falcons", "Pittsburgh Steelers" ], "direction": "Under", "result": "win", "game": { "away": "Atlanta Falcons", "home": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "kickoff": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z", "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 13, "home_score": 20 }, "recap": "This game played almost exactly the way we hoped. Pittsburgh won 20-13 and the offenses combined for only 33 points. Cooper Rush threw for just 143 yards with two interceptions, and T.J. Watt actually returned one of those picks 35 yards for a touchdown. Defensive touchdowns are usually dangerous when you're holding an Under ticket, but the offenses were inefficient enough that it didn't matter. Bijan Robinson accounted for 173 of Atlanta's 238 total yards, and Nick Folk missed two field goals along the way. The Under cashed with 7.5 points to spare.", "pick": "Atlanta Falcons / Pittsburgh Steelers Under 40.5", "lockedLine": "40.5", "confidence": 4, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T11:45:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "pickNotes": "Atlanta having to start Cooper Rush made the Under much more attractive. I expected the Falcons to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and try to shorten the game, while I wasn't expecting Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offense to suddenly become explosive either. The total was already low at 40.5, but this matchup looked like a grind.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "Atlanta Falcons", "homeTeam": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "marketType": "total", "selection": "Under", "line": 40.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": 0.9090909090909091, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true }, { "id": "2026-w1-total-4", "type": "total", "teams": [ "Dallas Cowboys", "New York Giants" ], "direction": "Under", "game": { "away": "Dallas Cowboys", "home": "New York Giants", "kickoff": "2026-09-14T00:20:00Z", "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "status": "FINAL", "away_score": 20, "home_score": 28, "detail": "Final" }, "pick": "Dallas Cowboys / New York Giants Under 48.5", "lockedLine": "48.5", "confidence": 3, "lockedAt": "2026-09-13T19:30:00-04:00", "lockTimeApproximate": true, "result": "win", "pickNotes": "This is the lower-confidence late addition. FanDuel had the total at 48.5, which is high enough for me to take the Under despite some conflicting signals. Dallas is without star guard Tyler Smith, its tackles were shaky in pass protection last season, and the Giants have a defensive front capable of wrecking obvious passing downs. That could make Dallas lean more heavily on the run and keep the clock moving. On the other side, I'm not sold on a Matt Nagy/Jaxson Dart offense immediately lighting up Dallas' revamped defense.\n\nThere is real disagreement on this game: Action Network also liked Under 48.5, while Covers preferred the Over because both secondaries have weaknesses and Malik Nabers is active. The total also moved up from roughly 47.5 to 48.5. I like getting the inflated number, but the conflicting evidence is exactly why this is only a 3-star play rather than a 4-star play.", "recap": "This one got home, but we absolutely needed some help. Dallas and New York finished with 48 combined points, so our Under 48.5 cashed by the thinnest possible margin. The missed extra point was ultimately the difference between a win and a loss. That makes the result even more notable because Sunday was an extremely Over-heavy slate: 9 of 13 games went Over the listed market total. So this wasn’t just a half-point sweat, it was an Under surviving on a day when scoring was running hot almost everywhere. The record says WIN, but this is one we should tag as fortunate rather than pretend the handicap was perfect.", "sport": "NFL", "league": "NFL", "season": 2026, "slateType": "week", "slateLabel": "Week 1", "slateNumber": 1, "eventDate": "2026-09-13", "awayTeam": "Dallas Cowboys", "homeTeam": "New York Giants", "marketType": "total", "selection": "Under", "line": 48.5, "oddsAmerican": -110, "priceStatus": "publisher-assigned-legacy", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "riskUnits": 1, "profitUnits": 0.9090909090909091, "gradingRule": "full-game", "official": true } ], "score_source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20260913", "schemaVersion": 2 }