Thursday night gives us Atlanta traveling to Lambeau as a 6.5-point underdog, and I’m comfortable laying the points with Green Bay.
There’s nothing especially contrarian about this one. Atlanta is 0-2, just got embarrassed 34-3 by Carolina, and Green Bay is playing its home opener. But I’m not backing the Packers simply because they’re the obvious favorite. The matchup, quarterback situation and underlying numbers all point me toward Green Bay as long as we’re still getting -6.5.
Atlanta’s offense has been a mess
The Falcons have scored just 16 points through two games, losing 20-13 to Pittsburgh and 34-3 to Carolina.
The bigger concern is how they’ve gotten there. Atlanta has turned the ball over seven times in two games and has yet to reach the red zone. Against Carolina alone, the Falcons committed five turnovers while producing only 286 total yards and 4.3 yards per play.
Cooper Rush started both games and struggled badly. He completed 22 of 39 passes for 229 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions before being replaced during the Carolina loss.
Atlanta is now turning to Michael Penix Jr., who has officially been named the starter Thursday. Penix gives the offense more upside, particularly downfield, and that’s the main reason I’m not treating this game as an automatic blowout.
But this will also be his first start since tearing his ACL last season.
He’s returning on a short week, on the road, at Lambeau, and he’s being asked to immediately stabilize an offense that hasn’t sustained drives or protected the football.
I expect Atlanta to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and try to keep Penix out of obvious passing situations. If Green Bay can control the run and force second- and third-and-long, I like the Packers’ chances of creating mistakes.
Green Bay’s defense is better than the final scores suggest
Green Bay allowed 39 points to Minnesota in Week 1, which looks awful until you dig into the box score.
The Vikings gained only 239 total yards and averaged 3.9 yards per play. Green Bay actually outgained Minnesota 419-239.
The Packers lost that game because of turnovers, penalties, field position and a disastrous fourth quarter, not because Minnesota consistently moved the football.
Then Green Bay held the Jets to 285 yards in Week 2 and limited Breece Hall to just 29 yards on 16 carries.
Through two games, the Packers have allowed only 524 total yards, or 262 per game.
That’s the part of the handicap I trust more than the raw points allowed.
Atlanta’s offense hasn’t demonstrated that it can consistently move the ball against anyone yet. Now it gets a Green Bay defense that has been difficult to move the ball against despite some misleading scoring totals.
I only want this bet below seven
Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been perfect either.
Jordan Love threw for 387 yards against Minnesota but only 145 against the Jets. The Packers converted just 1 of 9 third downs last week and finished with 199 total yards.
There are also discipline issues. Green Bay has committed 26 penalties for 231 yards through two games.
That’s why I’m not interested in blindly laying any number with the Packers.
But Love has still thrown four touchdowns against one interception, and Green Bay has enough explosive talent to punish an Atlanta defense that may be missing key pieces.
I don’t need the Packers to play a perfect offensive game. If they score 24 or 27 points, I’m comfortable asking Atlanta to keep pace.
The number is the key.
At -6.5, a seven-point Green Bay win cashes. At -7, that same result pushes. At -7.5, it loses.
This isn’t a contrarian play, and I’m not trying to make it one. Atlanta’s problems are obvious and Green Bay will probably be the popular side. The question is whether the market has already charged too much for that information.
At -6.5, I don’t think it has.
Why I’m backing Green Bay
Michael Penix Jr. makes Atlanta more dangerous than it was with Cooper Rush, and that keeps this from being a larger wager for me.
But he’s still returning from a major injury into a tough road environment on a short week.
Atlanta has scored 16 points, turned the ball over seven times and failed to reach the red zone through two games.
Green Bay’s defense has quietly allowed only 262 yards per game, and the Packers have enough offensive talent to create separation if they simply cut down on the self-inflicted mistakes.
If the line moves through seven, I’m not chasing it.